Racing Tips – Picking Outsiders – Tips For Finding Big Priced Winners

A select few pro-punters have looked at this perennial question of “how to make good profits” from horse racing and, differing thought patterns emerge each time. It is apparent that the majority of “average” punters tend to favour the shorter priced “high win percentage” favourites, but those in the know look for the higher priced “value” horses.

Now, when I say “higher priced value” I am not specifically referring to “long shots” which, although very nice indeed when they win, are a far more risky proposition. As with any investment based medium the old adage of “risk equals reward” stands! It has been suggested that the price you seek should be dictated by the size of your bankroll, but I cannot subscribe to this theory at all. When you collect at decent odds it is well worth the effort needed to find the selection but a note of caution, the losing runs can be much longer than the shorter priced wins so your betting bank must be adequate to sustain this.

My top suggestions that will help you in your quest to find regular bigger priced winners are as follows:

Tip 1.

Make sure you have a strategy and that you stick to it religiously each time. Doubts will certainly appear but be strong and disciplined. Being disciplined is THE most important part of any strategy! There are plenty of betting systems available to aid here and most people find it helps with doing the same thing consistently. If a selection is found by the system, DON’T let the price dictate. Just bet as you would normally do. Stick to THE PLAN!

Tip 2.

If you are not using a betting system, make sure you understand what and where to look for your potential selection. A good starting point can be to seek out a really big priced winner last time out and see where it stands today. Next, get to know your race track. Mastering one or two local tracks can pay huge advantage when it comes to betting. Understand what the main factors are in today’s race and then compare these against all the other horses in the field. Try to stay clear of big fields as they can often produce no more than utter confusion when having to deal with so many factors/horses.

One thing you should definitely be looking for was whether your chosen selection today had any distinct advantage over the field last time. Look at all the main factors such as Class, Recent Form, Going, Distance etc. Why? Because one thing you can be 100% certain of is that if the bookmaker, or other punters if you are using a betting exchange, missed something last time, they WILL make the same mistake again. The area of expertise you are building here is to spot and take advantage of situations like this repeatedly.

Tip 3.

This can be a crucial aid to help you win more often. Patterns exist for everything in horse racing and DO repeat themselves regularly. You will be amazed how often everyone else seems to miss this one simple fact. Having the inside measure on a good “gambling” yard can dramatically increase your returns. We are NOT interested in the yards everyone gets to know about, we must seek out those that tend to keep their cards close to their chest. A “gamble” horse is no use to us when every Tom, Dick and Harry is in on it. The price will plummet and they invariably FAIL anyway.

Jockey’s are the same but to a lesser extent, for what should be obvious reasons.

Just do some research and you will find that some of the BIGGEST price winners have been ridden by the BIGGEST, in terms of fame, jockeys. Well, there you have it. My TOP 3 TIPS for starting to get bigger priced winners. I hope this helps and that your betting bank sees considerable growth over the weeks and months by following these simple tips for success.

The Best Bet in Horse Racing Handicapping For Beginners and Novice Horse Players

Other than getting a good tip on a horse from someone in the know, there are some bets that traditionally offer a better chance of winning and making money betting on the horse races, especially if you are a beginner or have limited experience handicapping horse races. Upon entering any race track the horse player is presented with a multitude of opportunities for wagering on almost any race. There are the traditional flat bets like win, place, and show. Then there are exotic bets such as the daily double, exacta, quinella, trifecta, superfecta, pick three, pick four, pick six, place pick nine, and others.

It is nice to have so many choices but that can be a trap for the beginner. Seeing a large payoff on an exotic bet, such as the superfecta in the Kentucky Derby that paid over half a million dollars, can encourage a bettor to wager on the exotic wagers and to forsake the less exciting flat bets.

But there are several pitfalls inherent in the exotics, especially if you have limited knowledge of betting and making money from your bets. if you are just gambling for fun, then by all means, swing for the fences, as they say, and go for the big exotic, but just realize that hitting the truly big payoff is almost as difficult as hitting the lottery. But if you would like the nice warm feeling of leaving the race track with more money than you entered with, the flat bets are a much better deal.

One of the reasons that flat bets are good bets is that you can tell what you are getting and what the bet pays. That means you can make a fair judgment as to the actual value of the bet. Even a person with rudimentary horseplaying skills will sometimes see the odds and think to him or herself, “That horse would be bet down more than that, that’s a good deal!”

When that occurs, it is a golden opportunity to make a profit. Put enough of those situations together and you will be a winning horseplayer, no matter how much experience you’ve had. Another reason that the exotics aren’t as good as the flat bets, is that the takeout, or “vig,” as it is sometimes called, is higher on the exotics in most situations. That means that the track takes more money out of the pool before the winners of the bet are paid, so you are paying more for the privilege of making the bet. Over time a higher vig, even just a few percentage points higher, can really add up and eat into your winnings.

If you find the flat bets too boring and really feel you must play the exotics, I advise you to find a horse that seems to be going off at good odds, compared to its form, and wheel it in one of the exotic pools. if it truly is an overlay, the exotics may pay well and you will not lose because you failed to figure out which horses to use to complete the bet. So the win bet is by far the best bet for a beginner or novice, followed by the wheel bet in the exotics.

What is a Good Profit From Horse Racing Handicapping Or a Reasonable ROI?

Many people ask, “How much money can I make betting on horse races?” While many people struggle to make a profit from horse racing handicapping and betting on horse races, few people have a realistic idea of what can be expected and how much profit can really be achieved. Horse players often talk about R.O.I. or return on investment (ROI). Simply put, it is the percentage of return above your initial investment. So if you spend $100 on a win bet and get back $125 your ROI is 25%.

So how do you know what a good ROI is and what you can expect? First of all, when comparing investments, you must look at competing investments and also take into account the amount of risk and work involved. Handicapping horse races is time consuming and therefore, you must pay yourself for the time you spend handicapping. You can pay a professional such as myself, to do some of the handicapping, which means you’ll have to spend less of your own time, but in the end, you’ll still have to spend some time researching and putting some thought into how you bet.

If you buy stocks or make any other investment, you have to do some research as well. You may have a broker who makes recommendations or a financial planner or analyst, but in the end, just as with the people who pay me to handicap races for them, the ultimate decision will rest with the investor. Many stock investors now consider 10% as a reasonable return on their portfolio.

How much you can make on horses will vary from week to week, but your yearly average may be better than the stock return, but also much riskier. When it comes to horse handicappers, even the pros have their ups and downs and you have to look at the long haul to get an accurate idea of what is reasonable. For instance, the weekend of June 11th (I work in three day weekend blocks and send a newsletter with the information for each three day block) my key horses made a profit of over 80% ROI. That is very high, but the next week the profit on the same kinds of bets was way down.

In the most recent weekend, June 25th 2010 to June 27th, 2010, my top picks made a flat bet profit on win bets for thoroughbred bettors of 22% ROI, while bettors who played my top picks in harness races on half mile and 5/8’s mile tracks received 11% ROI. There are no guarantees in betting on horse races and it would be reckless of me to guarantee a profit or to try to predict how much profit to expect because of the volatility of the market.

Overall, however, it is safe to say that at times horse racing bettors may see a higher rate of return than bettors in other markets, but they pay for that possibility with a much higher risk.

The Safest Bet in Horse Racing Handicapping

Do you know what the safest bet in horse racing is? Maybe I should clarify what I mean by safe. When I write the safest bet, I mean a bet that has the highest expectancy of winning and the least of expectancy of diminishing your bankroll.

One doesn’t necessarily equal the other and you will understand what I mean if you’ve been betting on horse races for a while. Just because you hit a winner quite frequently with a bet, it doesn’t mean it won’t diminish your bankroll and just because you have a bet that won’t quickly diminish your bankroll doesn’t mean you will cash on that bet frequently.

Some people may choose the show bet as the safest bet. The show bet, particularly on the favorite, is a bet with a pretty high rate of coming in, but there are all kinds of favorites. There are luke warm favorites at fairly high odds, like 5-2 or even 3-1. Those types hit the show payoff much less frequently than the 2-5 favorites.

Horses at extremely low odds, like 4-5 or less, often pay to show, but the payoff is often rock bottom because there is a negative pool. If you earn a nickel on a dollar with these types, you are lucky and then factor in the occasion horse that disappoints and you will soon be asking, “Where is the profit?”

Using Dr. Z’s formulas, you may make a small profit on these types of high percentage bets, but you will have to risk a lot to get a little. I’m not knocking Dr. Z or his bets, he already proved they work, I’m just saying that you will have to make very large bets and risk a lot of money for a small return.

One of the problems with show betting is that breakage takes a piece of you three times. That’s a heck of a price to pay. In the long run, taking a shot at win bets on those 2-5 runners may be the way to go, but statistically, you will still be a loser in the long run.

So where is a safe bet? There is no truly “safe” bet because placing wagers on horses is risky and that is why they call it gambling, however, there are safer bets. My favorite bet is to find a horse that has done what is being asked of it and is the only horse in the race who gets a check mark in each of the following criteria…

1. won at the distance before

2. won at this class level before

3. raced within 30 days and was within 2 lengths of the winner at the finish

4. won at this level and distance with this jockey and trainer

5. is racing against 3 year olds and up

This is an absolute gold mine of a bet. Doesn’t come along that often, but when it does it is amazing how often the horse isn’t a favorite.

For my money, it is the safest bet in horse racing and with all the tracks available through simulcasting, you should be able to find enough bets to make your days profitable.

Can Horse Racing Numerology Help You at the Track?

Go to the horse track with a friend seasoned in betting on the horses, and you’ll likely hear that he or she has a “system.” Some people who bet on horses may look at the actual odds posted, or they might go to where the animals are walked before they are taken to the gate and look for a sign or movement to guide them. Other betters check the names and choose a racer that stands out because the name has special meaning.

Yes, everybody has a system, but not all systems work. If you are interested in taking a chance on horse racing, whether for fun or to determine if professional gambling works for you, you need a program that is more effective than guesswork. The Mozan Racing Numerology program is one method betting experts have used to choose winners.

How does Mozan work? As the full name implies, this system relies upon the science of numbers to determine which horses are most likely to cross the finish line first. Mozan Numerology calculates various factors, including the name of the race, the date and names of the competing horses, and produces an approximation of the win-place-show rundown. In software form, this program is simple to use and doesn’t require any prior knowledge of numerology or mathematics to get the results you want.

Once you have a horse racing numerology system in place, next comes the question of reliability. It’s natural to feel skeptical about software programs and equations designed to help you win as you gamble. If you have concerns, know you don’t have to make a heavy bid the first time around. Test the program with a few low-money bets, or apply the same system to a Greyhound race for practice. As you see results in how the numbers work, you will feel more confident in placing your bets at the local horse track, and eventually major cup races.

Consider a horse racing system based on the science of numbers to help you win at the track. You’ll find you stand to gain much more than what you put into it.